Researcher predicts what year each state could legalize gay marriage

April 9, 2009 by savvyplanners.com

April 9, 4:25 PM ·

Michele & Lexie

With Vermont legalizing gay marriage legislatively this week, and Iowa legalizing it via a court order last week, the issue is certainly on people’s minds. One researcher has crunched the numbers to predict when voters would be willing to legalize same-sex marriage in each state. The verdict for Washington State? 2009.

Nate Silver, an analyst who has correctly predicted outcomes of many different elections, has looked at data including whether a state has previously passed a ban on gay marriage, the importance of religion to local voters based on a Gallup survey, and how many white evangelicals live in a particular state. Based on that, he created a model to predict when voters in each state would be likely to vote down a ban on gay marriage. In states without a ban, legislatures could then legalize gay marriage. So, technically, it isn’t a list of when pro-gay marriage laws will be passed, but when they could be passed. Silver predicts that Iowans would not support gay marriage if given the chance, until 2013.

Currently, four states have already legalized gay marriage: Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Iowa. States that allow civil unions but not same-sex marriage are Washington, Oregon, and New Hampshire.

In 2009, the states that seem to be willing to pass gay marriage are:

New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Maine
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Nevada
Washington
Alaska
New York
Oregon

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